Modelling Ireland’s Exchange Rates - From EMS to EMU

This paper attempts to model the nominal and real exchange rate for Ireland, relative to Germany and the UK from 1975 to 2003. It offers an overview of the theory of purchasing power parity (Ppp), focusing particularly on likely sources of nonlinearity. Potential difficulties in placing the analysis in the standard I(1)/I(0) framework are highlighted and comparisons with previous Irish studies are made. Tests for fractional integration and nonlinearity, including random field regressions, are discussed and applied. The results obtained highlight the likely inadequacies of the standard cointegration and Star approaches to modelling, and point instead to multiple structural changes models. Using this approach, both bilateral nominal exchange rates are effectively modelled, and in the case of Ireland and Germany, Ppp is found to be valid not only in the long run, but also in the medium term.Purchasing power parity; fractional Dickey-Fuller tests; smooth transition autoregression; random field regression; multiple structural changes models

Nonlinearity as an Explanation of the Forward Exchange Rate Anomaly

This paper shows that nonlinearity can provide an explanation for the forward exchange rate anomaly (Fama, 1984). Using sterling-Canadian dollar data, and modelling nonlinearity of unspecified form by means of a random field, we find strong evidence of time-wise nonlinearity and, significantly, obtain parameter estimates that conform with theory to a high degree of precision: the anomaly disappears.Forward exchange rate anomaly; nonlinearity; random field regression

Using nutrient utilization patterns to determine the source of Escherichia coli found in surface water

Identifying the sources of fecal contaminants in surface water bodies such as rivers, lakes and beaches is of importance for environmental safety, public health safety, food safety and regulatory purposes. Nutrient utilization patterns (NUPs) were used as a bacterial source tracking technique to identify the possible sources of fecal coliform bacteria, Escherichia coli in Silver Lake, Delaware County, Iowa. A total of three hundred (300) E. coli isolates collected from different sources (water, birds, geese, cattle, hogs and soil contaminated by feces) were analyzed. A database was built from these isolates by using discriminant analysis to identify the nutrient utilization patterns that best classify all 300 isolates by source. The average rate of correct classification by source was 89.5% when applying the nutrient utilization patterns database. After this verification, the NUP for E. coli isolates from Silver Lake water were measured. Based on the NUPs of the Silver Lake isolates, 73.1% were found to originate from cattle and hogs. Smaller percentages were predicted to be coming from birds and geese. None of the isolates were predicted to be originating from the human source. The results indicate that livestock are the primary contributors to fecal pollution in this hypereutrophic Iowa lake.Keywords: Nutrient utilization patterns, Escherichia coli, bacterial source tracking, Silver Lake, Delaware, Iow

Detection of Coronal Mass Ejections in V471 Tauri with the Hubble Space Telescope

V471 Tauri, an eclipsing system consisting of a hot DA white dwarf (WD) and a dK2 companion in a 12.5-hour orbit, is the prototype of the pre-cataclysmic binaries. The late-type component is magnetically active, due to its being constrained to rotate synchronously with the short orbital period. During a program of UV spectroscopy of V471 Tau, carried out with the Goddard High Resolution Spectrograph (GHRS) onboard the Hubble Space Telescope, we serendipitously detected two episodes in which transient absorptions in the Si III 1206 A resonance line appeared suddenly, on a timescale of <2 min. The observations were taken in a narrow spectral region around Ly-alpha, and were all obtained near the two quadratures of the binary orbit, i.e., at maximum projected separation (~3.3 Rsun) of the WD and K star. We suggest that these transient features arise when coronal mass ejections (CME's) from the K2 dwarf pass across the line of sight to the WD. Estimates of the velocities, densities, and masses of the events in V471 Tau are generally consistent with the properties of solar CME's. Given our detection of 2 events during 6.8 hr of GHRS observing, along with a consideration of the restricted range of latitudes and longitudes on the K star's surface that can give rise to trajectories passing in front of the WD as seen from Earth, we estimate that the active V471 Tau dK star emits some 100-500 CME's per day, as compared to 1-3 per day for the Sun. The K dwarf's mass-loss rate associated with CME's is at least (5-25) x 10^{-14} Msun/yr, but it may well be orders of magnitude higher if most of the silicon is in ionization states other than Si III.Comment: 24 pages AASTeX, 4 figures. Accepted by Astrophysical Journa

Reconstruction and modeling protein translocation and compartmentalization in Escherichia coli at the genome-scale

BackgroundMembranes play a crucial role in cellular functions. Membranes provide a physical barrier, control the trafficking of substances entering and leaving the cell, and are a major determinant of cellular ultra-structure. In addition, components embedded within the membrane participate in cell signaling, energy transduction, and other critical cellular functions. All these processes must share the limited space in the membrane; thus it represents a notable constraint on cellular functions. Membrane- and location-based processes have not yet been reconstructed and explicitly integrated into genome-scale models.ResultsThe recent genome-scale model of metabolism and protein expression in Escherichia coli (called a ME-model) computes the complete composition of the proteome required to perform whole cell functions. Here we expand the ME-model to include (1) a reconstruction of protein translocation pathways, (2) assignment of all cellular proteins to one of four compartments (cytoplasm, inner membrane, periplasm, and outer membrane) and a translocation pathway, (3) experimentally determined translocase catalytic and porin diffusion rates, and (4) a novel membrane constraint that reflects cell morphology. Comparison of computations performed with this expanded ME-model, named iJL1678-ME, against available experimental data reveals that the model accurately describes translocation pathway expression and the functional proteome by compartmentalized mass.ConclusioniJL1678-ME enables the computation of cellular phenotypes through an integrated computation of proteome composition, abundance, and activity in four cellular compartments (cytoplasm, periplasm, inner and outer membrane). Reconstruction and validation of the model has demonstrated that the iJL1678-ME is capable of capturing the functional content of membranes, cellular compartment-specific composition, and that it can be utilized to examine the effect of perturbing an expanded set of network components. iJL1678-ME takes a notable step towards the inclusion of cellular ultra-structure in genome-scale models

Using Genome-scale Models to Predict Biological Capabilities

Constraint-based reconstruction and analysis (COBRA) methods at the genome scale have been under development since the first whole-genome sequences appeared in the mid-1990s. A few years ago, this approach began to demonstrate the ability to predict a range of cellular functions, including cellular growth capabilities on various substrates and the effect of gene knockouts at the genome scale. Thus, much interest has developed in understanding and applying these methods to areas such as metabolic engineering, antibiotic design, and organismal and enzyme evolution. This Primer will get you started

Delivery of Dark Material to Vesta via Carbonaceous Chondritic Impacts

NASA's Dawn spacecraft observations of asteroid (4) Vesta reveal a surface with the highest albedo and color variation of any asteroid we have observed so far. Terrains rich in low albedo dark material (DM) have been identified using Dawn Framing Camera (FC) 0.75 {\mu}m filter images in several geologic settings: associated with impact craters (in the ejecta blanket material and/or on the crater walls and rims); as flow-like deposits or rays commonly associated with topographic highs; and as dark spots (likely secondary impacts) nearby impact craters. This DM could be a relic of ancient volcanic activity or exogenic in origin. We report that the majority of the spectra of DM are similar to carbonaceous chondrite meteorites mixed with materials indigenous to Vesta. Using high-resolution seven color images we compared DM color properties (albedo, band depth) with laboratory measurements of possible analog materials. Band depth and albedo of DM are identical to those of carbonaceous chondrite xenolith-rich howardite Mt. Pratt (PRA) 04401. Laboratory mixtures of Murchison CM2 carbonaceous chondrite and basaltic eucrite Millbillillie also show band depth and albedo affinity to DM. Modeling of carbonaceous chondrite abundance in DM (1-6 vol%) is consistent with howardite meteorites. We find no evidence for large-scale volcanism (exposed dikes/pyroclastic falls) as the source of DM. Our modeling efforts using impact crater scaling laws and numerical models of ejecta reaccretion suggest the delivery and emplacement of this DM on Vesta during the formation of the ~400 km Veneneia basin by a low-velocity (<2 km/sec) carbonaceous impactor. This discovery is important because it strengthens the long-held idea that primitive bodies are the source of carbon and probably volatiles in the early Solar System.Comment: Icarus (Accepted) Pages: 58 Figures: 15 Tables:

Influence of Nanoparticle Size and Shape on Oligomer Formation of an Amyloidogenic Peptide

Understanding the influence of macromolecular crowding and nanoparticles on the formation of in-register $\beta$-sheets, the primary structural component of amyloid fibrils, is a first step towards describing \emph{in vivo} protein aggregation and interactions between synthetic materials and proteins. Using all atom molecular simulations in implicit solvent we illustrate the effects of nanoparticle size, shape, and volume fraction on oligomer formation of an amyloidogenic peptide from the transthyretin protein. Surprisingly, we find that inert spherical crowding particles destabilize in-register $\beta$-sheets formed by dimers while stabilizing $\beta$-sheets comprised of trimers and tetramers. As the radius of the nanoparticle increases crowding effects decrease, implying smaller crowding particles have the largest influence on the earliest amyloid species. We explain these results using a theory based on the depletion effect. Finally, we show that spherocylindrical crowders destabilize the ordered $\beta$-sheet dimer to a greater extent than spherical crowders, which underscores the influence of nanoparticle shape on protein aggregation

Identifying the science and technology dimensions of emerging public policy issues through horizon scanning

Public policy requires public support, which in turn implies a need to enable the public not just to understand policy but also to be engaged in its development. Where complex science and technology issues are involved in policy making, this takes time, so it is important to identify emerging issues of this type and prepare engagement plans. In our horizon scanning exercise, we used a modified Delphi technique [1]. A wide group of people with interests in the science and policy interface (drawn from policy makers, policy adviser, practitioners, the private sector and academics) elicited a long list of emergent policy issues in which science and technology would feature strongly and which would also necessitate public engagement as policies are developed. This was then refined to a short list of top priorities for policy makers. Thirty issues were identified within broad areas of business and technology; energy and environment; government, politics and education; health, healthcare, population and aging; information, communication, infrastructure and transport; and public safety and national security.Public policy requires public support, which in turn implies a need to enable the public not just to understand policy but also to be engaged in its development. Where complex science and technology issues are involved in policy making, this takes time, so it is important to identify emerging issues of this type and prepare engagement plans. In our horizon scanning exercise, we used a modified Delphi technique [1]. A wide group of people with interests in the science and policy interface (drawn from policy makers, policy adviser, practitioners, the private sector and academics) elicited a long list of emergent policy issues in which science and technology would feature strongly and which would also necessitate public engagement as policies are developed. This was then refined to a short list of top priorities for policy makers. Thirty issues were identified within broad areas of business and technology; energy and environment; government, politics and education; health, healthcare, population and aging; information, communication, infrastructure and transport; and public safety and national security

Hubble Space Telescope Spectroscopy of V471 Tauri: Oversized K Star, Paradoxical White Dwarf

We have used the GHRS onboard the HST to obtain Lyman-alpha spectra of the hot white-dwarf (WD) component of the short-period eclipsing DA+dK2 pre-cataclysmic binary V471 Tauri, a member of the Hyades star cluster. Radial velocities of the WD, combined with ground-based measurements of the dK velocities, eclipse timings, and a determination of the dK star's rotational velocity, yield dynamical masses for the components of M(WD)=0.84 and M(dK)=0.93 Msun. Model-atmosphere fitting of the Ly-alpha profile provides the effective temperature (34,500 K) and surface gravity (log g=8.3) of the WD. The radius of the dK component is 18% larger than that of a normal Hyades dwarf of the same mass. This expansion is attributed to the extensive coverage of the surface by starspots, causing the star to expand in response. The WD radius, determined from a radiometric analysis and from eclipse ingress timings, is 0.0107 Rsun. The position of the star in the M-R plane is in full accord with theory for a degenerate CO WD. The high temperature and mass of the WD present an evolutionary paradox: the WD is the most massive known in the Hyades, but also the hottest and youngest. We suggest that the explanation is that the WD is indeed very young, and is descended from a triple consisting of a blue straggler and a more-distant dK companion. We estimate that the common-envelope efficiency parameter, alpha_CE, was of order 0.3-1.0, in good agreement with recent hydrodynamical simulations.Comment: Astrophysical Journal, in press. 34 text pages, 8 figure